We need to understand the inherent characteristic of the region before we dissect the situation post US. The region is very well known for its ethnic division and religious conflict. As we all know the Shi’as and the Sunnis are always at each other’s throats. Historically Iraq is known for political instability. Saddam Hussein was the only leader who could forge the entire country with the help an iron fist. He was termed wicked and cruel for his ways of quelling the ethnic strife. Here we need to observe that it was only because of a strong centralized leadership the country could be pacified. He may have been called hundred names by the western media but we can’t ignore the fact that he was successful in uniting the country. For his misfortune he ended up rubbing the wrong side of the big brother, the US. It is a very different issue whether he possessed WMDs or not, the target was oil. The coalition forces were done with the Taliban affair and thought that they will score some brownie points. They were able to bring done Saddam Hussein but the cost of this so called WMD hunt was way too heavy on both sides.
The US and its allies made the world believe that they are doing Iraq a favor by bringing down the diabolical regime of Saddam. Here the US failed to learn from their past blunders like in Vietnam. They thought by having superior tech and firepower they can make the world dance to their tunes but in reality it is very important to know the regional geopolitics and nature of the people. By bringing down the dictator they broke the one forge which held together the oil rich country of Iraq. It is very natural that a region which is rich in natural resources will be politically volatile. Everybody will want to control and have a piece of the cake. The US thoroughly failed to understand the need for a formidable leadership. As Iraq is a deeply religious country it did not take a while for the rogue elements like Al Qaeda to play the Jihad card and start blowing up things. The very presence of US itself was a challenge for the law and order as it is very easy for these groups to recruit by saying US is a form of Satan which has to be annihilated.
The way the US and its allies entered Iraq, itself sealed the fate of Iraq as they were bombarding the place from all directions. It may have finished off the opposition but the antagonized the people, it became cake walk for the insurgent groups to sympathize and recruit them by promising revenge in the name of Islam. The US gave out the launch pad for these rogues as in any case they wouldn't be bearing the brunt, it is the people of Iraq who had to go through the agonizing period of internal strife in the following years. In all this why would US and its allies care about the people, their interest was to fetch the oil and they fulfilled it, strategically the unity and peace in Iraq would be least of their botheration. Beyond the oil the security contractors and the war industries would mint money due to this instability. If we see the current situation the US may have withdrawn but they leave their stamp, they have left behind a decade long internal security nightmare. It is very obvious that when there is no strong leadership and there is power vacuum the religious and ethnic squabble would resume and presumably Shi’as and Sunnis are at it again. Nearly 7000 thousand people have been killed in the sectarian violence and the holy places like AL Askari Shi’ite mosque was not spared.
Basically, whether there was US or not, even if Saddam had died a natural death the country would have been in a similar condition. We may talk of democracy but we need to understand in a land where the ethnic groups are just waiting to take a shot at each other require an iron fist. US may claim that they have liberated the country whereas the liberation has proved death to thousands of Iraqis. Iraq has never seen a proper democracy even after it was declared a republic in 1958. All it witnessed was coup after coup until Saddam became the whole and sole ruler. It takes a generation for a political idea like Democracy to sync into a country as volatile as Iraq. Democracy is far fetched dream especially when groups like Mahdi Army and Al Qaeda are actively fueling the religious tension. There are different ethnic groups like Assyrians, Kurds, Arab etc. who will be waiting for an opportunity to take control for stakes are really high as there is OIL for taking.
In the current situations, Noor Al Maliki headed government is largely perceived as a Shi’a regime and have alienated the Sunni Arab section of the people. The way the government was elected is absolutely not of any consequence as the idea of democracy does not mean anything to the people. They can’t even relate it any period of history when they had democracy. Al Qaeda on the other hand has been very successful in exploiting the situation, it has become a cake walk for them as people have no perception of the peace. They just want to stake claim on power to rule.
It is absolutely puerile to think that once the US forces leave Iraq things are going to stabilize. If we see the neighborhood, there are hawks eager as always to make sure that their Interests are secured. Iran has played a very cunning role, it knows that if the power goes into the hands of the Sunni Arab faction they may lose their hold on the region. Arabs and Iran have always been hostile and even in Iraq they are bound to continue their feud at the cost of the peace and security of Iraq. Al Qaeda will continue to fuel strife as long as the people see beyond the religion which at present seems like distant dream. Meanwhile the fact that the US is calling the shots also doesn't help as it is used as a decoy to draw in as many recruits as possible. In all the chaos US ceremoniously withdrew in 2011 leaving behind a small contingent of 4000 troops in two if its bases, they may have handed over the responsibilities to the Iraqi forces which does not help. The so called Iraqi forces is not yet capable to take over the mantle of law and order. The lack of national leadership who could unite the country also poses to be a great challenge. People need a leader with whom they can identify irrespective of their ethnic and religious affiliations. Leadership is irreplaceable especially while building a nation and unfortunately Iraq lacks it, for example Nasser may have been a dictator but he was a popular leader and led the country from front making Egypt a force to reckon with in the Arab world. If is for the people to realize that the division among themselves will spell death, they need to get enlightened, they need a movement like the Arab spring to bring the nation together, until them the rogues like Mahdi army and Al Qaeda will rule the roost.
The US and its allies made the world believe that they are doing Iraq a favor by bringing down the diabolical regime of Saddam. Here the US failed to learn from their past blunders like in Vietnam. They thought by having superior tech and firepower they can make the world dance to their tunes but in reality it is very important to know the regional geopolitics and nature of the people. By bringing down the dictator they broke the one forge which held together the oil rich country of Iraq. It is very natural that a region which is rich in natural resources will be politically volatile. Everybody will want to control and have a piece of the cake. The US thoroughly failed to understand the need for a formidable leadership. As Iraq is a deeply religious country it did not take a while for the rogue elements like Al Qaeda to play the Jihad card and start blowing up things. The very presence of US itself was a challenge for the law and order as it is very easy for these groups to recruit by saying US is a form of Satan which has to be annihilated.
The way the US and its allies entered Iraq, itself sealed the fate of Iraq as they were bombarding the place from all directions. It may have finished off the opposition but the antagonized the people, it became cake walk for the insurgent groups to sympathize and recruit them by promising revenge in the name of Islam. The US gave out the launch pad for these rogues as in any case they wouldn't be bearing the brunt, it is the people of Iraq who had to go through the agonizing period of internal strife in the following years. In all this why would US and its allies care about the people, their interest was to fetch the oil and they fulfilled it, strategically the unity and peace in Iraq would be least of their botheration. Beyond the oil the security contractors and the war industries would mint money due to this instability. If we see the current situation the US may have withdrawn but they leave their stamp, they have left behind a decade long internal security nightmare. It is very obvious that when there is no strong leadership and there is power vacuum the religious and ethnic squabble would resume and presumably Shi’as and Sunnis are at it again. Nearly 7000 thousand people have been killed in the sectarian violence and the holy places like AL Askari Shi’ite mosque was not spared.
Basically, whether there was US or not, even if Saddam had died a natural death the country would have been in a similar condition. We may talk of democracy but we need to understand in a land where the ethnic groups are just waiting to take a shot at each other require an iron fist. US may claim that they have liberated the country whereas the liberation has proved death to thousands of Iraqis. Iraq has never seen a proper democracy even after it was declared a republic in 1958. All it witnessed was coup after coup until Saddam became the whole and sole ruler. It takes a generation for a political idea like Democracy to sync into a country as volatile as Iraq. Democracy is far fetched dream especially when groups like Mahdi Army and Al Qaeda are actively fueling the religious tension. There are different ethnic groups like Assyrians, Kurds, Arab etc. who will be waiting for an opportunity to take control for stakes are really high as there is OIL for taking.
In the current situations, Noor Al Maliki headed government is largely perceived as a Shi’a regime and have alienated the Sunni Arab section of the people. The way the government was elected is absolutely not of any consequence as the idea of democracy does not mean anything to the people. They can’t even relate it any period of history when they had democracy. Al Qaeda on the other hand has been very successful in exploiting the situation, it has become a cake walk for them as people have no perception of the peace. They just want to stake claim on power to rule.
It is absolutely puerile to think that once the US forces leave Iraq things are going to stabilize. If we see the neighborhood, there are hawks eager as always to make sure that their Interests are secured. Iran has played a very cunning role, it knows that if the power goes into the hands of the Sunni Arab faction they may lose their hold on the region. Arabs and Iran have always been hostile and even in Iraq they are bound to continue their feud at the cost of the peace and security of Iraq. Al Qaeda will continue to fuel strife as long as the people see beyond the religion which at present seems like distant dream. Meanwhile the fact that the US is calling the shots also doesn't help as it is used as a decoy to draw in as many recruits as possible. In all the chaos US ceremoniously withdrew in 2011 leaving behind a small contingent of 4000 troops in two if its bases, they may have handed over the responsibilities to the Iraqi forces which does not help. The so called Iraqi forces is not yet capable to take over the mantle of law and order. The lack of national leadership who could unite the country also poses to be a great challenge. People need a leader with whom they can identify irrespective of their ethnic and religious affiliations. Leadership is irreplaceable especially while building a nation and unfortunately Iraq lacks it, for example Nasser may have been a dictator but he was a popular leader and led the country from front making Egypt a force to reckon with in the Arab world. If is for the people to realize that the division among themselves will spell death, they need to get enlightened, they need a movement like the Arab spring to bring the nation together, until them the rogues like Mahdi army and Al Qaeda will rule the roost.
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